Breaking News: Non-parallel Lines Intersect

The Red Velvet Lawyer writes:

At the conference of the Midwest Association of Prelaw Advisors held at the end of October 2013, Professor Jerry Organ predicted that jobs would exceed the number of law school graduates in 2016 (as I recall). 

He suggested that the market would turn because applicants to law school would continue to decline while the trend in new law jobs would hold at least steady.

So, here is my attempt at supporting this prediction.  I am using data provided byLSAC at the MAPLA conference, which I have discussed in earlier postings.  I am also relying on data provided by NALP.

I make the following assumptions:

  • Enrollment of first-year law students will decline by 8.0% from the previous year through the 2015 entering class.

  • Each entering class experiences an attrition rate of 12 percent. So, only 88 percent of each first-year class graduates three years later.

  • New full-time jobs in three categories — bar required, JD advantage, and other professional jobs — will hold steady at the 2012 level of 31,776 jobs.

  • All categories of full-time jobs will hold steady at the 2012 level of 33,759 jobs.

 

In other words, as long as enrollment keeps falling and the current attrition rate of 12% holds up, there will eventually be few enough law grads remaining that most should be able to find jobs. Of course, they’ll be competing with all the current grads who still haven’t found jobs, and all the lawyers who’ve been laid off, but maybe those other lawyers will have found non-legal work by then.

Of course, not everyone sees the glass as half empty.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s